In five charts: How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price

The BBC takes a look in charts at what the UAE's departure could mean for the oil cartel and more widely. It comes at a time of significant volatility in the oil market, with the US-Israel war with Iran triggering the biggest loss of oil supply on record, according to the World Bank. Here, in five charts, we explain how Opec influences oil prices and what the UAE's departure could mean. In 2016, when oil prices were particularly low, Opec joined forces with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create the wider Opec+ alliance. Opec aims to influence the global price of oil by agreeing how much its oil members sell.

That policy came alongside a co-ordinated cut to oil production. Oil prices more than doubled, there was fuel rationing, and the significant knock-on effects were compounded by a second oil shock in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution. More recently, when the price of crude oil crashed due to a lack of buyers during the coronavirus pandemic, Opec+ slashed production to boost prices. In its first meeting since the UAE left Opec, Opec+ decided members would increase production by 188,000 barrels per day from June. Their statement, which made no mention of the UAE, said this was to "support oil market stability".

Over the past few decades Opec's influence on oil prices has "varied", says Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot. The UAE was the world's third biggest oil exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to the latest Opec data. This doesn't take into account current global events which have had a significant impact on oil exports, sending the price of crude rocketing. Similarly, Opec+ members' decision to increase production is largely symbolic while movement is constrained. The UAE is Opec's fourth biggest oil producer.

According to the Opec data, the UAE produced 3.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2025. Days after the UAE said it was quitting Opec, state-owned oil company Adnoc announced it was accelerating its growth through projects worth $55 billion between 2026 and 2028. Opec is less important to world oil markets than it was in the 1970s, as it now holds a smaller share of internationally traded oil. Oil is also less important to the world's economy. As of 2025 Opec produced 36.7% of global crude oil - down from over half (52.5%) in 1973, according to its figures.

Globally, the US is the main oil producing nation - and has been since 2018 - producing 13.6 million barrels a day. Carulli says influence over the oil price has "shifted" to the US in recent weeks because Gulf members of Opec are unable to export oil they produce while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. "Opec will continue, but with materially less ability to set prices," he adds. Economics Opec Oil Oil & Gas industry Inflation United Arab Emirates The BBC takes a look in charts at what the UAE's departure could mean for the oil cartel and more widely. In five charts: How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price