Iran war may cause food shortages in Africa, world’s largest fertiliser firm says

The financial intelligence company S&P Global said the impact of the war was already deepening into supply chains. Chris Rogers, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Food supply chains face both direct and indirect challenges from fuel and fertiliser restrictions. “The variability in Africa’s dependence on Middle East nitrogenous fertilisers is high, with Ethiopia and Kenya heavily exposed in sub-Saharan Africa.” With 35% of the world’s supply of urea, a key ingredient in fertiliser coming from Gulf states, Yara has already seen supplies choked and the price of urea up by between “60% and 70% since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran at the end of February”. The increase in price “has some rather dramatic consequences for those that cannot afford them”, Holsether said. Then there is the issue of squeezed reserves and production. “At some point you run out of inventory space,” said Holsether. “And there’s a limit to how much you can store within the production plants.” In a double whammy, supplies of ammonia, a foundational raw material for nitrogen-based fertilisers, have also been torpedoed . Ammonia is a toxic substance that can cause serious respiratory tract damage and keeping inventories in war is so risky, some countries like Qatar have suspended production entirely. “We are losing production every day. It will take weeks or months to restart,” said Holsether in relation to the general fertiliser production.

Fertilisers used for the sowing season, which is starting soon in sub-Saharan Africa, is one challenge for local farmers but then they face the issue of building stockpiles this summer for 2027’s crops, a routine practice in farm planning. The EU was already taking action to help farmers, but the same support must be given in sub-Saharan Africa, Holsether said. “We need to treat farming like a business.” Only this week the EU announced it was loosening state subsidy rules for industries along with grant aid of up to €50,000 (£43,200) for individual farmers for the extra cost of fuel or fertiliser caused war. But in Africa those supports do not exist. They are also started from a point of compromised soil health and lack of food reserves. “In Europe soil conditions and farming are quite optimised already, so farmers are able to reduce fertiliser consumption somewhat without dramatic consequences on the yield,” Holsether said. “But that’s not the same in other parts of the world. You are under-fertilising to begin with. Africa, that’s where I’m most worried right now. Yet again, we are in a situation where the most vulnerable will pay the highest price.” Explore more on these topics