The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?

President Zelensky has been visiting the Gulf to demonstrate his country's military nous. 5 hours ago Share Save Add as preferred on Google Katya Adler Europe editor When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, serious-faced and clad in black, strolled down a lilac carpet in Saudi Arabia in March, it marked a moment in the US-Israeli war in Iran. Initially, the impact of the Iran conflict seemed overwhelmingly negative for Ukraine. Trump has renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil because of spiralling costs worldwide. The more money Russia has, the longer and, in theory, harder, it can prosecute the war in Ukraine.

But Kyiv has consistently confounded international expectations since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And now it's done so again: playing a deft hand at trying to turn the impact of the Iran war to its advantage, as Ukraine tries to get itself in the strongest position possible before eventual, hoped-for peace negotiations with Russia. In the meantime, Zelensky has focussed on bolstering Ukraine where he can. Saudi Arabia, which he visited again in April, has faced the same type of ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran that Russia barrages Ukraine with, he said. Ukraine signed two substantial defence cooperation agreements with European allies in April.

As for the Gulf States, Zelensky said he hoped for their help defending Ukraine against Russia. Ukraine has also learned a key lesson from the Iran conflict to use back home: the big bang impact of attacking an adversary's oil export facilities. According to Zelensky, Russia is suffering "critical" losses running to billions of dollars in its energy sector despite the recent surge in global oil prices. Crude oil export data suggests the rise in prices, plus the easing of American sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, boosted Russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. Another plus for Ukraine from the Iran war fallout has been finally getting the green light last week on a €90bn (£78bn), EU-backed loan that Kyiv said it urgently needed to purchase and produce military equipment over the coming year.

That aided Orbán's demise, allowing the EU's Ukraine loan to finally be released. The sense of urgency in Ukraine is longstanding. Before being re-elected president, Trump repeatedly said he would end the violence in Ukraine in 24 hours. They visited the Russian capital late last year as ceasefire talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine gained pace, and again in January. The Trump administration has denied any bias towards Russia.

But Ukraine and other European countries were perturbed to read the US National Security Strategy (NSS), published towards the end of last year. It conspicuously does not label Russia a security threat. The NSS does underline the importance of ending the war President Zelensky has been visiting the Gulf to demonstrate his country's military nous. The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?